NEW YORK – Even as consumers deal with the weight of rising costs due to tariff passthrough and spiking oil prices, the overall consumer confidence edged up ever so slightly in March.
According to the latest report from the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index increased a mere 0.8 points this month to settle at 91.8. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased 4.6 points to 123.3.
Meanwhile, the Expectations Index – based on the short-term outlook of the conditions – saw a slight dip of 1.7 points to 70.9. That number is still well below the 80-mark that tends to signal recession.
“Consumer confidence ticked up again in March, as a modest improvement in consumers’ views of current conditions outweighed a slight downshift in expectations for the future,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Three of five components of the Index firmed in March, and overall confidence improved modestly for a second month. Nonetheless, the Index has been on a general downward trend since 2021.”
Among demographic groups, confidence on a six-month moving average basis continued to moderate for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, but was virtually unchanged for those aged 35-54. Younger consumers (respondents under age 35) remain the most optimistic.
The conflict in Iran and the impact it has had on oil prices caused 12-month inflation expectations to surge to levels last seen in August 2025. “Consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” Peterson said. “Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers’ minds. As the war in Iran overlapped significantly with the survey sample period, comments about oil/gas and war/conflict spiked, while specific mentions of trade and tariffs decreased notably.”
Here are some other notable points from this month’s report:
Present Situation
Consumers’ views of current business conditions improved in March.
- 21.9 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 20.4 percent in February.
- 16.3 percent said business conditions were “bad,” down from 19.0 percent.
On net, consumers’ views of the labor market were virtually unchanged in March.
- 27.3 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” up slightly from 26.7 percent in February.
- 21.5 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” also up slightly from 21.0 percent.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Consumers were a tad less pessimistic about future business conditions in March.
- 18.2 percent of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 17.6 percent in February.
- 21.3 percent expected business conditions to worsen, a small uptick from 21.2 percent.
However, consumers were more negative about the labor market outlook in March.
- 15.4 percent of consumers expected more jobs to be available, down from 16.0 percent in February.
- 27.9 percent anticipated fewer jobs, up from 26.2 percent.
Consumers’ outlook for their income prospects was slightly less optimistic in March.
- 19.2 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase, up from 18.4 percent in February.
- 13.9 percent expected their incomes to decline, up from 12.5 percent.
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