Well, I was there, I saw it all in person … and I still don’t quite understand exactly what happened.
If, like me, you went to some or all (heaven forbid) of the shows and markets along the gift and home circuit this summer, you might be having the same look of confusion on your face. There are so many contradictory things going on in the industry right now it’s maddening to try to sort it all out.
But I’ll give it a shot.
On the one hand, the shows were — and this is a compliment — not terrible. We all know the summer versions of Dallas, Atlanta, Las Vegas and New York are always reduced compared to the winter series. But market traffic, as measured by the highly scientific metrics of lines at the Starbucks and elevator waits, were pretty much in line with previous summers.
And we all know just about everyone who makes, sells or buys gift and home products is worried about what’s going on with tariffs and potentially interrupted supply chains that could cause shortages for the critically important fourth quarter and holiday season. Yet, you wouldn’t necessarily see it on the faces and order iPads of those hitting the shows. Maybe buying was a little more cautious and retailers were checking their credit card balances to see what they could afford, but there was no widespread panic or shutdown in the overall scheme of things.
And we know that prices were up, with most lines doing surcharges usually in the five to 15 percent range with a couple of outliers on both ends of that spectrum. That translates into selling prices on the retail sales floor of as much as one-third higher than pre-tariff and that’s a lot for products up and down the food chain. Yet, I heard more people complaining about the price of eggs and a Chick-Fil-A sandwich than what they were being asked to fork over for next season’s goods. They weren’t exactly shrugging their shoulders, but they weren’t crying on their tablets either.
So, do you have any reasonable explanation for this disconnect of epic proportions? I’m kind of stymied and while I’m often clueless I usually have a reasonable handle on things like this.
So, because you didn’t ask, here’s my take. Right now, the economy is doing pretty good. Retail sales, consumer confidence, the stock market — they’re all generally in positive territory. Employment remains strong and the price of most people’s homes continues to increase, even if they’re locked into them a little bit more than they would like.
The shift hasn’t hit the fan yet is what I’m thinking. Those higher — potentially much higher — prices on things the industry’s consumers buy haven’t hit yet. Any shortages that will be reflected in retailers simply having fewer goods — and perhaps the wrong goods — for the holiday selling season are still in the theoretical stage.
All that bad news that keeps showing up on people’s social media news feeds? Call it tariff fatigue. Call it “there-they-go-again-speak.” Call it talk-talk-talk. Call it what you want … but that doesn’t mean it’s not going to be true at some point.
In the meantime, I just don’t get it.
