October retail sales reveal the impact of headwinds that are challenging consumers, reports Circana.
CHICAGO – U.S. consumers continue to demonstrate their resiliency and flexibility in navigating the challenges facing them. However, that resiliency includes spending more while being able to afford and get less. According to Circana, last October’s sales data proves that the headwinds consumers are facing are strong.
In the combined four weeks ending Nov. 1, 2025, consumer spending prioritization remained ever-present, helping to bring 2% growth to overall U.S. retail sales revenue, while unit demand remained flat during the four weeks of November compared to the same time in 2024, Circana reported.
Discretionary general merchandise retail dollar sales declined 1%, and unit demand fell 4% compared to the same period a year ago.
Declines in discretionary spending and unit demand as the holiday shopping season gets underway are an indication of the current consumer volatility, particularly up against last year’s early-season declines. To date, through the week ending Nov. 8, fourth-quarter 2025 sales revenue of discretionary general merchandise is down 1% from this time last year, and unit demand is down 3%. Compared to two years ago, discretionary general merchandise sales for this period are down 10% in dollars and 9% in units.
“Consumers appear nimble as they bend and stretch their ability to purchase amid an abundance of headwinds hitting their wallets,” said Marshal Cohen, chief retail industry advisor for Circana. “But the struggle to exceed last October’s soft comps resulting from pre-election distraction makes it clear that their resiliency is being tested heading into the core holiday shopping period.”
Examination of each retail industry provides insight into the consumer’s continued prioritization of spending on food over more discretionary purchases. Retail food and beverage sales revenue was up 3%, and unit sales were up 1%. Non-edible consumer packaged goods dollars were up 1%, while unit sales declined 2%.
The stage is set for a rocky start to the holiday shopping season. As stated in Circana’s 2025 Holiday Purchase Intentions study, holiday spending is projected to be between a 1% decline and 2% increase compared to last year, with unit declines falling by as much as 2.5% during the traditional November and December shopping period.
“The holiday season does not bring more money into consumers’ pockets, which means pockets of retail growth will not be robust,” Cohen said. “Early shopping behavior will influence the balance of the holiday season, so marketers need to put their best foot forward now in order to capture their share of a discerning market.”
