Summary:
- Global Port Tracker forecasts early fall import decline
- NRF cites rising inflation and geopolitical tensions
- Ports handled 2.16 million TEU in March, slight year-over-year increase
WASHINGTON – After an uptick in import cargo traffic for the May-June period, import volume at the major U.S. container ports is likely to drop below last year’s levels in early fall, according to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Retailers are taking a conservative approach to amassing inventories amid economic uncertainty, said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. As a result, containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is sliding.
“Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook,” he added.
While the numbers show a year-over-year increase for May and June, those figures are being compared to the sharp drop-off in the same period last year after President Trump announced steep “Liberation Day” tariffs, said Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for supply chain and Customs policy.
“With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that,” he said.
U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.16 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units — one 20-foot container or its equivalent — in March, the latest month for which final data is available. That was up 0.6% year over year and up 13.6% from February, when many Asian factories were closed for Lunar New Year celebrations and bad weather delayed the arrival of cargo at some U.S. ports.
Ports have not yet reported April numbers, but Global Port Tracker projected the month at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.6% year over year. May is forecast at 2.17 million TEU, up 11.1% year over year; June at 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2%; July at 2.2 million TEU, down 7.8%; August at 2.19 million TEU, down 5.5%, and September at 2.08 million TEU, down 1.3%.
The first half forecast projects volume of 12.59 million TEU, up 0.5% from the same period in 2025 thanks, in part, to the May-June increases.
Imports totaled 25.4 million TEU in 2025, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
Global Port Tracker covers the U.S. ports of Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the East Coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
