VAUGHAN, ONT. – The City of Toronto is one of a majority of municipalities in the Greater Golden Horseshoe that has received a failing grade when it comes to housing starts and sales, according to a report carried out by the University of Ottawa’s Missing Middle Initiative for the Residential Construction Council of Ontario (RESCON).
Of the 34 municipalities that were graded, 22 received an F, another five received a D, and the other seven municipalities received a C or higher.
There were a couple of star students however, with Brantford coming in with an A-plus and Milton with an A. Richmond Hill and Burlington received a B grade.
Municipalities were graded in five categories related to housing starts and sales.
“The findings of this report are troubling and should set off the alarm bells for policy-makers across all three levels of government,” explains RESCON president Richard Lyall in a statement. “Housing projects have been shelved and the industry has hit a wall. The outlook is bleak, and we are trending in the wrong direction. We need governments to take concrete action to lower the tax burden and modernize the process to kick-start the industry. Our economy will be in dire straits if we do not act quickly.”
The report notes in the first six months of this year, housing starts were down an average of 40 per cent in the 34 municipalities. Condo apartment starts over the first six months were down 54 per cent relative to 2021-24 while purpose-built rental starts were up eight per cent. Starts for everything other than apartments were down 42 per cent.
In Toronto, starts in the first six months of 2025 were down 58 per cent and sales declined 91 per cent compared to the same period between 2021-24, causing employment to fall by an estimated 10,209 jobs.
The assessment is based on data obtained from Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and Altus Group. Researchers examined housing starts, sales and industry employment across municipalities in the Greater Toronto Area and Greater Golden Horseshoe region over the first six months of 2025, relative to the same time period in the previous four years (2021-25).
“Both the federal and provincial governments have committed to doubling housing starts,” says Mike Moffatt, an economist and founder of the Missing Middle Initiative. “Unfortunately, housing starts are falling, and new home sales show that further declines in starts are about to come. All three orders of government must act to address the housing crisis.”
Pre-construction sales are considered a prime indicator of the market’s health, a RESCON release states. Pre-construction sales of condo apartments are down 89 per cent and ground-oriented sales are down 70 per cent.
This is “a clear indication that Ontario’s housing situation will get worse before it gets better, and that market weakness is not isolated to the condo market.”
The reduction in housing starts in the municipalities over the first six months of the year, relative to 2021-24 averages, translates into 24,195 fewer person-years of employment.
“We are in the midst of the worst housing crisis in a generation,” adds Lyall. “While the situation is bad it could get worse if governments fail to reduce the tax burden on new housing.”
Click here to read the full report.
