While current business conditions were viewed less favorably, consumers’ slight optimism helped stabilize overall confidence levels.
Despite continued turmoil in the Middle East and spiking prices here on home soil, consumer confidence inched up in April, according to the latest data from the Conference Board.
The Consumer Confidence Index edged up by just over half a point (0.6) to rest at 92.8, up from the 92.2 registered in March’s revised reading. The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, dipped 0.3 points to 123.8. The Expectations Index, the short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, rose 1.2 points to 72.2 – a mark that continues to remain well below the 80 points that often signals recession.
“Consumer confidence edged up in April but was overall little changed, despite material concern about rising gasoline prices as the war in the Middle East prompted a surge in Brent crude oil prices,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Consumer appraisals of current and expected business conditions declined moderately compared to last month. This was offset by modest improvements in consumers’ perceptions of the labor market, both current and expected, as well as income expectations, which were slightly more optimistic in April.”
Among demographic groups, confidence continued to trend downward on a six-month moving average basis for consumers aged 35 and up. Younger consumers seemed more confident in April, as confidence showed improvement among millennials and Gen Z.
The Conference Board’s report notes that the two-week ceasefire that occurred within the survey sample period (April 1-22), likely helped ease concerns about financial indicators after March’s spike. Write-in responses on factors affecting the economy “continued to skew towards pessimism,” with comments on oil and gas prices increasing in frequency.
Some other data from this month’s report include:
Present Situation
Consumers’ views of current business conditions eroded in April.
- 22.0 percent of consumers said business conditions were “good,” up from 21.7 percent in March.
- However, 17.9 percent said business conditions were “bad,” up from 15.8 percent.
On net, consumers’ views of the labor market improved moderately in April.
- 27.3 percent of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” virtually unchanged from 27.4 percent in March.
- 19.8 percent of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” down from 21.3 percent.
Expectations Six Months Hence
Overall, consumers were slightly more pessimistic about future business conditions in April.
- 18.9 percent of consumers expected business conditions to improve, up from 18.1 percent in March.
- Conversely, 23.6 percent expected business conditions to worsen, up from 21.4 percent.
However, consumers were less negative about the labor market outlook in April.
- 16.1 percent of consumers expected more jobs to be available, up from 15.4 percent in March.
- 26.9 percent anticipated fewer jobs, down from 27.8 percent.
On net, consumers’ outlook for their income prospects was also slightly more optimistic in April.
- 18.6 percent of consumers expected their incomes to increase, down from 19.2 percent in March.
- But only 12.3 percent expected their incomes to decline, also down from 13.6 percent.
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