The ConstructConnect Expansion Index is calculated by comparing the total dollar value of construction projects in planning for the current month to the value of projects in planning for that same calendar month in the prior year.
Canada’s Expansion Index came in at 1.14 in June, indicating a 14 per cent year-over-year increase in ideated construction investment compared with June 2025. With the exception of an unusually weak reading in April, Canada has posted an expansionary reading in every month of 2026.
Note: Ideated means any and all projects in some stage of preconstruction. This includes projects whose groundbreaking date may be many years in the future. All such future projects have no guarantee to either achieving a groundbreaking nor reaching to construction completion.
Sector analysis
Expansion was widespread in June, with seven of the nine construction categories tracked posting expansionary readings. Government led the way with a reading of 1.36, followed by civil at 1.34 and retail at 1.32. Medical, commercial and residential also posted meaningful year-over-year growth in ideated investment.
The two categories that contracted relative to year-ago levels were community and industrial. Community has seen few contractionary readings in recent months, making June’s decline somewhat notable. Industrial, by contrast, remains under pressure after several consecutive months of contraction.
Provincial analysis
Similar to the construction categories, expansion across Canada was also widespread in June, with seven of the nine provinces tracked posting readings above one. Newfoundland led the country with a reading of 2.00, indicating ideated construction spending was double its year-ago level. Alberta, Ontario, Manitoba and Nova Scotia also posted strong readings, each exceeding 1.20.
New Brunswick and Quebec were the only two provinces to record readings below one. In both cases, weakness in retail and community contributed to the contractionary result.
Note: High Expansion Index readings reflect growth in ideated investment dollars rather than project count, meaning a single large project can significantly impact a region’s index, particularly if it has a smaller construction market.
Conclusion
June’s Expansion Index reading of 1.14 marks the fifth expansionary month in the first six months of 2026, with ideated construction investment in Canada running 14 per cent above year-ago levels. Strength was widely distributed in June, with expansion reaching seven of nine provinces and construction categories tracked.
Overall, the readings indicate ideated expansion is present across much of the market, though not uniformly. In this environment, firms will need to target the strongest growth areas to capture their share of emerging opportunities.
Devin Bell in the associate economist with ConstructConnect.
