Global container spot rates increased again last week as carriers continued to pass through higher operating costs tied to the war involving Iran, while uncertainty surrounding negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz added another layer of volatility to shipping markets.
Supply chain analytics firm Drewry’s World Container Index rose 4 percent to $2,655 per 40-foot container in its May 28 assessment, extending the upward trend that has taken hold since disruptions in the Middle East began pushing fuel costs higher earlier this spring.
The increase was driven primarily by gains on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes, where carriers continue to implement emergency fuel surcharges, peak-season surcharges and higher Freight All Kinds rates.
On the trans-Pacific, spot rates from Shanghai to New York increased 5 percent to $4,465 per 40-foot container, while rates to Los Angeles rose 4 percent to $3,491. Drewry said carriers continue to manage capacity through blank sailings while maintaining surcharge programs introduced in response to higher fuel costs and operational uncertainty.
Asia-Europe routes also moved higher. Spot rates from Shanghai to Genoa rose 6 percent to $3,923 per 40-foot container, while rates to Rotterdam increased 4 percent to $2,510. Drewry noted that capacity remains relatively tight as carriers seek to preserve pricing amid elevated operating expenses.
The freight market’s attention remains fixed on the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global shipping routes and carrying roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.
According to CBS News, Vice President JD Vance said last Thursday that the United States and Iran are “very close” to reaching an initial agreement that would reopen the strait, extend the current ceasefire and allow negotiations to continue on broader issues, including Iran’s nuclear program. However, Vance cautioned that negotiators are “not there yet.”
CBS also reported that White House sources indicated a tentative framework had been reached, though it still required approval from President Donald Trump. Iranian state media pushed back on those reports, citing a source close to Tehran’s negotiating team who said no agreement had been finalized or confirmed.
Analysts say that, for shipping markets, the uncertainty is almost as important as the outcome itself. Since the conflict began, disruptions to tanker traffic through Hormuz have tightened global fuel supplies, pushed crude prices higher and led carriers to introduce a variety of fuel-related surcharges. While some vessel movements have resumed under temporary arrangements, carriers continue to operate cautiously and factor geopolitical risk into pricing decisions.
Drewry said the prospect of a reopening could eventually ease some of the pressure on bunker fuel costs and supply chains. However, even if an agreement is reached, normal shipping patterns are unlikely to return immediately. Carriers would need time to reposition vessels, restore schedules and evaluate security conditions before resuming routine operations through the corridor.
