BuildForce Canada has released its annual Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward reports for the residential and non-residential construction sectors. This particular story pertains to Quebec and covers the forecast period from 2026 to 2035. The Daily Commercial News will have more provincial breakdowns from across Canada as well as national coverage in upcoming articles throughout the week.
QUEBEC CITY – Mining, utilities, transportation and public infrastructure projects alongside sustained activity in the construction of ICI buildings are highlights of BuildForce’s forecast for the non-residential sector in Quebec.
Engineering construction investment rose sharply after 2022 as expenditures increased on major projects such as the Canadian Malartic Odyssey Mine, several roadwork, tunnel and bridge projects as well as strong levels of investment by Hydro Québec in the utilities sector.
“As these and several other significant projects, including the Champion Iron and ArcelorMittal modernization, reach completion over the medium term, engineering investment is expected to subside before returning to an upward trend in the longer term,” the report reads. “Despite these completions, activity is expected to remain elevated among heavy industrial and other engineering projects as Hydro Québec makes further infrastructure investments.”
Investment in roads, highways and bridges is expected to slow continuously across the forecast period as activity concludes on a number of major projects, including the Louis-Hippolyte-La Fontaine, Ville-Marie and Viger tunnels, the Pont de l’Île-aux-Tourtes Bridge and the Île-d’Orléans Bridge projects.
The BuildForce outlook also calls for investment levels to generally stabilize to the end of the decade. Growth is expected to be driven by current and proposed multibillion-dollar projects including the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Quebec, the Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont modernization, the Hôpital Vaudreuil-Soulanges and the New University Affiliated Hospital in Gatineau.
Commercial building activity is projected to strengthen over the medium term as service-sector demand rises.
Industrial building construction is expected to moderate in the short-term following the completion of major projects. These contractions are expected to be offset by the proposed start of work on the Bécancour Battery Material Plant.
When it comes to employment non-residential sector levels peaked at almost 128,000 workers in 2024, before stepping down in 2025. They are expected to slow modestly over the medium term as many of the tracked projects end or are expected to wind down by 2029.
The province’s labour force faces a total hiring requirement of as many as 23,800 workers by 2035. As many as 25,400 of those workers, or 19 per cent of the 2025 labour force, are expected to exit the industry due to retirement. Helping to close the gap is the anticipated recruitment of 27,100 new entrants under the age of 30 from the local population.
Even with that recruitment, however, the province’s non-residential construction sector could face a surplus of 3,300 workers by 2035. This excess supply is likely to be curtailed by the Commission de la Construction du Québec, which manages construction labour markets in the province, the report adds.
Residential construction activity in Quebec reached a recent peak in 2025, with housing starts approaching 60,000 units. Starts, however, are projected to recede over the short term as population-driven demand slows, although pent-up demand may prevent an abrupt contraction.
Weakening demand for multi-unit construction is expected to account for the majority of the near-term decline in total housing starts.
Across the forecast period, multi-unit residential construction is projected to stabilize around 28,000 units annually. Low-rise apartments (i.e., structures four storeys or less) are expected to remain the dominant structure type in Quebec, with the share of highrise units remaining relatively stable despite ongoing urban densification.
Overall new-home construction is projected to decline beginning in 2026 and continue falling through the medium term.
By 2027, investment in residential renovations is expected to become the primary driver of residential construction investment, leading to moderate gains in overall residential activity later in the forecast period, BuildForce notes.
Residential construction employment levels in Quebec reached an elevated level of more than 110,000 workers in 2025. However, the sector is expected to experience employment losses by 2035, with a potential contraction of 12 per cent compared to 2025 levels. Employment losses are concentrated in new-housing construction, which contracts by almost 36 per cent over the forecast period.
Partially offsetting these declines are projected gains in employment in both residential renovations (+9 per cent) and residential maintenance activities (+5 per cent).
